Lake Mead Water Line Drop
The 1930's Western Dust Bowl Horror May Be Back To Stay
By James Donahue
The drought that has gripped the Western United States for the last fourteen years threatens to bring back lasting images of the Dust Bowl days of the 1930's, climate researchers warn.
A study by researchers for NASA, Columbia University and Cornell University, published in Science Advances, suggests the drought, which appears to be directly linked to climate change, may be among the worst on record. A study of tree rings shows it hasn't been this arid for at least 500 years, and perhaps longer.
And if the research team is right, the problem isn't going to go away.
"Even at the middle-of-the-road scenario, we see enough warming and drying to push us past the worst droughts experienced in the region since the medieval era," said Benjamin Cook, the study's lead author.
The drought, which now spreads across much of the American West from California through Texas and into Oklahoma, may have a major impact on food supply, food prices, property values and the nation's economy before the year is out.
Without water, farms don't produce crops and livestock cannot live. In fact, if the water tables in the great underground aquifers continue to drop as they have in the past decade, people will be unable to live in this area.
Imagine vast areas of the great American plains turned to desert instead of producing acres of grain. Imagine the great cities south and west of the Missouri River standing deserted and barron.
The research team used 17 computer models of droughts and models of soil moisture to predict the possible effects of continued drought over the next century. They found a high potential for a "megadrought" like the one believed linked to the decline of the ancient Anasazi people of the Colorado Plateau in the 1200s.
A report by the U.S. Geological Survey only about five years ago also suggested a probability of a looming megadrought. Greg McCabe, one of the authors of that report, said tree ring records showed that the area has experienced droughts lasting as long as 50 years. And that was under normal conditions. Human caused global warming and weather change was not a playing factor during those droughts.
That report said that the flow of water in the mighty Colorado River, that ranchers from Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada and south into Mexico rely on, had dropped to a critical level. The annual flow from 1995 through 2004 was averaging 9.9 million acre-feet. The lowest prior record was in a period from 1584 to 1595 when the flow was estimated at 9.7 million acre-feet.
From 2001 to 2003 the average flow on the Colorado dropped to an incredible 5.4 million acre-feet measured at Lees Ferry, Arizona, the report said. By comparison, during the Dust Bowl years, the annual flow averaged about 10.2 million acre-feet.
Water levels on the Colorado River and especially at Lake Mead, at the Hoover Dam, have dropped a record 140 feet from normal. The drop is expecially noticeable because the old water level has left a white ring of lime along the rock canyon walls.
The people in Las Vegas, who get their water from Lake Mead, are closely watching the water level of Lake Mead since the old tunnels that draw water into the city will dry up if the water sinks below 1,000 feet. The level today is at about 1,080 feet and still falling. The city is burrowing a new deeper tunnel . . . just in case.
McCabe explained that warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean tend to correspond with droughts in the U.S. He said the Atlantic is warm now, similar to how it was during the Dust Bowl drought of the early 1930s.
The Pacific Ocean also is warm, which has an El-Nino effect on the world's weather.
Scientists warn that a layer of smog and other particles collecting in the atmosphere surrounding the Earth is blocking sunlight and causing less evaporation of water from lakes and oceans. This in turn is reducing global rainfall. Statistics show that desert regions are growing all over the world. Large areas of China and Africa are turning into desert, as is much of Australia. Could this be a permanent problem for the Western United States?
By James Donahue
The drought that has gripped the Western United States for the last fourteen years threatens to bring back lasting images of the Dust Bowl days of the 1930's, climate researchers warn.
A study by researchers for NASA, Columbia University and Cornell University, published in Science Advances, suggests the drought, which appears to be directly linked to climate change, may be among the worst on record. A study of tree rings shows it hasn't been this arid for at least 500 years, and perhaps longer.
And if the research team is right, the problem isn't going to go away.
"Even at the middle-of-the-road scenario, we see enough warming and drying to push us past the worst droughts experienced in the region since the medieval era," said Benjamin Cook, the study's lead author.
The drought, which now spreads across much of the American West from California through Texas and into Oklahoma, may have a major impact on food supply, food prices, property values and the nation's economy before the year is out.
Without water, farms don't produce crops and livestock cannot live. In fact, if the water tables in the great underground aquifers continue to drop as they have in the past decade, people will be unable to live in this area.
Imagine vast areas of the great American plains turned to desert instead of producing acres of grain. Imagine the great cities south and west of the Missouri River standing deserted and barron.
The research team used 17 computer models of droughts and models of soil moisture to predict the possible effects of continued drought over the next century. They found a high potential for a "megadrought" like the one believed linked to the decline of the ancient Anasazi people of the Colorado Plateau in the 1200s.
A report by the U.S. Geological Survey only about five years ago also suggested a probability of a looming megadrought. Greg McCabe, one of the authors of that report, said tree ring records showed that the area has experienced droughts lasting as long as 50 years. And that was under normal conditions. Human caused global warming and weather change was not a playing factor during those droughts.
That report said that the flow of water in the mighty Colorado River, that ranchers from Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada and south into Mexico rely on, had dropped to a critical level. The annual flow from 1995 through 2004 was averaging 9.9 million acre-feet. The lowest prior record was in a period from 1584 to 1595 when the flow was estimated at 9.7 million acre-feet.
From 2001 to 2003 the average flow on the Colorado dropped to an incredible 5.4 million acre-feet measured at Lees Ferry, Arizona, the report said. By comparison, during the Dust Bowl years, the annual flow averaged about 10.2 million acre-feet.
Water levels on the Colorado River and especially at Lake Mead, at the Hoover Dam, have dropped a record 140 feet from normal. The drop is expecially noticeable because the old water level has left a white ring of lime along the rock canyon walls.
The people in Las Vegas, who get their water from Lake Mead, are closely watching the water level of Lake Mead since the old tunnels that draw water into the city will dry up if the water sinks below 1,000 feet. The level today is at about 1,080 feet and still falling. The city is burrowing a new deeper tunnel . . . just in case.
McCabe explained that warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean tend to correspond with droughts in the U.S. He said the Atlantic is warm now, similar to how it was during the Dust Bowl drought of the early 1930s.
The Pacific Ocean also is warm, which has an El-Nino effect on the world's weather.
Scientists warn that a layer of smog and other particles collecting in the atmosphere surrounding the Earth is blocking sunlight and causing less evaporation of water from lakes and oceans. This in turn is reducing global rainfall. Statistics show that desert regions are growing all over the world. Large areas of China and Africa are turning into desert, as is much of Australia. Could this be a permanent problem for the Western United States?