Can We Trust The Poll Numbers?
By James Donahue
Probably because I still use the old land-line telephone system at my home I am subjected to a rash of nuisance calls from people trying to sell me things I don’t want, or asking me to send money to people claiming to represent the police, fire departments or cancer research. Some of the more interesting callers have been from so-called pollsters who say they want my opinion about current political issues.
Because, like most Americans, I have some strong opinions I attempt to participate in the polls. But when I try to submit to the pollster’s calls, the moment they learn that I am an elderly, retired gentleman living in a rental apartment, they suddenly lose interest and say they do not want my opinion on anything. So why is this? Since statistically the older Americans are shown to be the most faithful voters it would seem that our opinion in the polls would be important.
It has crossed my mind that the pollsters are representing political interests that wish to use the numbers they accumulate to help sell the public on issues that the public in general may not really support. If this is true, the polls coming out of the State of California where I live cannot be trusted. If the number counters don’t wish to hear from people like myself, who pack this state with the largest number of elderly residents per capita (3.3 million of us at last count), there must be a political reason.
Can this also be true of polls being taken throughout the nation this fall?
Could it be that the pollsters are attempting to mislead the people with alleged numbers supporting the Republican right-wing conservative agenda? They know that the older population is heavily dependent on Social Security and Medicare programs, and the variety of other government social services created over the years especially for the sick, handicapped, unemployed and elderly. These are the very things the Republican elements in Washington are trying to eliminate. Thus there appears to be a very good reason for them to not want the opinions of people who depend heavily on these programs.
The Pew Research Center, known for its accuracy in polling the nation, still defends its numbers. For example, this agencies pre-election polls in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote. This actually happened but the polls did not account for the Electoral College, which gave the presidency to Donald Trump.
The same thing happened when the Electoral College and the Supreme Court helped George W. Bush steal the 2000 election from Al Gore.
While the Pew researchers still claim a good record in its poll numbers, numerous other agencies, including the major news networks, conduct polls of their own. And some of the published results from these polls have generated some relatively thorny numbers.
A recent New York Times editorial noted that “two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of elections and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys.” These phenomenon have made it more costly to conduct high-quality research and “opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques,” the editorial stated.
It has occurred to me that when pollsters call on my telephone, I do not remember any of them explaining who they were representing. My advice: If you are willing to answer the questions, it might be well if you find out who you are talking to first.
By James Donahue
Probably because I still use the old land-line telephone system at my home I am subjected to a rash of nuisance calls from people trying to sell me things I don’t want, or asking me to send money to people claiming to represent the police, fire departments or cancer research. Some of the more interesting callers have been from so-called pollsters who say they want my opinion about current political issues.
Because, like most Americans, I have some strong opinions I attempt to participate in the polls. But when I try to submit to the pollster’s calls, the moment they learn that I am an elderly, retired gentleman living in a rental apartment, they suddenly lose interest and say they do not want my opinion on anything. So why is this? Since statistically the older Americans are shown to be the most faithful voters it would seem that our opinion in the polls would be important.
It has crossed my mind that the pollsters are representing political interests that wish to use the numbers they accumulate to help sell the public on issues that the public in general may not really support. If this is true, the polls coming out of the State of California where I live cannot be trusted. If the number counters don’t wish to hear from people like myself, who pack this state with the largest number of elderly residents per capita (3.3 million of us at last count), there must be a political reason.
Can this also be true of polls being taken throughout the nation this fall?
Could it be that the pollsters are attempting to mislead the people with alleged numbers supporting the Republican right-wing conservative agenda? They know that the older population is heavily dependent on Social Security and Medicare programs, and the variety of other government social services created over the years especially for the sick, handicapped, unemployed and elderly. These are the very things the Republican elements in Washington are trying to eliminate. Thus there appears to be a very good reason for them to not want the opinions of people who depend heavily on these programs.
The Pew Research Center, known for its accuracy in polling the nation, still defends its numbers. For example, this agencies pre-election polls in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote. This actually happened but the polls did not account for the Electoral College, which gave the presidency to Donald Trump.
The same thing happened when the Electoral College and the Supreme Court helped George W. Bush steal the 2000 election from Al Gore.
While the Pew researchers still claim a good record in its poll numbers, numerous other agencies, including the major news networks, conduct polls of their own. And some of the published results from these polls have generated some relatively thorny numbers.
A recent New York Times editorial noted that “two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of elections and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys.” These phenomenon have made it more costly to conduct high-quality research and “opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques,” the editorial stated.
It has occurred to me that when pollsters call on my telephone, I do not remember any of them explaining who they were representing. My advice: If you are willing to answer the questions, it might be well if you find out who you are talking to first.